Clusters of longitudinal risk profile trajectories are associated with cardiometabolic diseases: Results from the population-based KORA cohort.

BACKGROUND: Multiple risk factors contribute jointly to the development and progression of cardiometabolic diseases. Therefore, joint longitudinal trajectories of multiple risk factors might represent different degrees of cardiometabolic risk. METHODS: We analyzed population-based data comprising three examinations (Exam 1: 1999-2001, Exam 2: 2006-2008, Exam 3: 2013-2014) of 976 male and 1004 female participants of the KORA cohort (Southern Germany). Participants were followed up for cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke, or a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, until 2016. Longitudinal multivariate k-means clustering identified sex-specific trajectory clusters based on nine cardiometabolic risk factors (age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body-mass-index, waist circumference, Hemoglobin-A1c, total cholesterol, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Associations between clusters and cardiometabolic events were assessed by logistic regression models. RESULTS: We identified three trajectory clusters for men and women, respectively. Trajectory clusters reflected a distinct distribution of cardiometabolic risk burden and were associated with prevalent cardiometabolic disease at Exam 3 (men: odds ratio (OR)ClusterII = 2.0, 95% confidence interval: (0.9-4.5); ORClusterIII = 10.5 (4.8-22.9); women: ORClusterII = 1.7 (0.6-4.7); ORClusterIII = 5.8 (2.6-12.9)). Trajectory clusters were furthermore associated with incident cardiometabolic cases after Exam 3 (men: ORClusterII = 3.5 (1.1-15.6); ORClusterIII = 7.5 (2.4-32.7); women: ORClusterII = 5.0 (1.1-34.1); ORClusterIII = 8.0 (2.2-51.7)). Associations remained significant after adjusting for a single time point cardiovascular risk score (Framingham). CONCLUSIONS: On a population-based level, distinct longitudinal risk profiles over a 14-year time period are differentially associated with cardiometabolic events. Our results suggest that longitudinal data may provide additional information beyond single time-point measures. Their inclusion in cardiometabolic risk assessment might improve early identification of individuals at risk.

An audit of 1632 routinely collected cervical cancer screening smears from 398 women in Germany: Results from the TeQaZ Study.

OBJECTIVE: There is evidence in Germany that half of the cervical cancer (CC) cases had undergone screening frequently in the decade preceding their diagnosis, signaling cytology quality issues. This study investigates routine smear assessment accuracy in Germany. METHODS: Within a population-based case-control study in 9 German states, we recruited cases (women with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of CC) and population controls (women with no history of CC or hysterectomy). Two independent expert cytologists audited Pap smears taken within the 10 years preceding CC diagnosis (cases)/study entry (controls). We report the prevalence of positive results, as well as routine assessment's accuracy, as sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative rates along with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We also examined cases' smear history, to investigate possible false-positive recurrence. RESULTS: We audited 1632 smears of 392 women (18.9% cases, 81.1% controls). In the routine assessment, the overall prevalence of positive results was 4.5% (29.0% among cases). According to the expert audit, the overall prevalence of positive results was 7.7% (40.8% among cases). When restricting analyses to the 3 years preceding diagnosis/study entry, this prevalence increased to 11.9% overall (61.4% among cases). The overall sensitivity of the routine assessment was 54.9% (66.8% for cases). CONCLUSION: As cytology remains an important part of CC screening, quality issues must be urgently addressed in Germany. Shifting to objective methods such as primary high-risk HPV screening followed by triaging may help CC elimination in Germany.

Incidence trend of type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2021 in Germany: an analysis of health claims data of 11 million statutorily insured people.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of the study is to describe the time trend of type 2 diabetes incidence in the largest state of Germany, Bavaria, from 2012 to 2021, and to compare the incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020-2021) to the pre-pandemic period (2012-2019). METHODS: This secondary data analysis uses health claims data provided by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KVB), covering approximately 11 million insurees, accounting for 85% of the total population of Bavaria, Germany. Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes cases in adults (≥20 years) coded as E11 (Diabetes mellitus, Type 2) or E14 (Unspecified diabetes mellitus) under ICD-10, German modification (ICD-10-GM) for the study period 2012 to 2021 were included. Annual and quarterly age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) stratified by sex, age and region were calculated using the European standard population. Sex-specific crude incidence rates (CIR) were calculated using 10-year age groups. Regression analyses adjusted for time trends, seasonal effects, and pandemic effects were used to analyse the incidence trend and to assess the effect of the pandemic. RESULTS: Overall, 745,861 new cases of type 2 diabetes were diagnosed between 2012 and 2021: 50.4% (376,193 cases) in women. The male/female ratio remained stable over the observation period, while the median age at diagnosis decreased from 61 to 58 years in men and from 66 years to 61 years in women. ASIR were consistently higher for men compared with women, with the yearly difference remaining stable over time (2012: 18%; 2021: 20%). An overall decreasing trend in ASIR was observed during the study period, with a strong decrease from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021 for both sexes. For men, ASIR decreased from 1514 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 995 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.6% average annual reduction), and for women from 1238 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 796 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.8% average annual reduction). This downward trend was also observed for age groups above 50 years. Regression analyses showed no significant change in incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020 and 2021) compared with the pre-pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: For the first time, a 10-year incidence trend of type 2 diabetes is reported for Germany, showing a strong decline from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021. The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes appears not to have been affected by the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite an overall increasing prevalence, the incidence is decreasing, potentially resulting from robust screening by family physicians, reducing the median age at diagnosis by 3 to 5 years. However, further investigation is needed to fully identify the reasons for the declining incidence trend. Continued incidence monitoring is necessary to identify the long-term trend and the potential effect of the pandemic on diagnoses of type 2 diabetes.

A systematic review of clinical health conditions predicted by machine learning diagnostic and prognostic models trained or validated using real-world primary health care data.

With the advances in technology and data science, machine learning (ML) is being rapidly adopted by the health care sector. However, there is a lack of literature addressing the health conditions targeted by the ML prediction models within primary health care (PHC) to date. To fill this gap in knowledge, we conducted a systematic review following the PRISMA guidelines to identify health conditions targeted by ML in PHC. We searched the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, PubMed, Elsevier, BioRxiv, Association of Computing Machinery (ACM), and IEEE Xplore databases for studies published from January 1990 to January 2022. We included primary studies addressing ML diagnostic or prognostic predictive models that were supplied completely or partially by real-world PHC data. Studies selection, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment using the prediction model study risk of bias assessment tool were performed by two investigators. Health conditions were categorized according to international classification of diseases (ICD-10). Extracted data were analyzed quantitatively. We identified 106 studies investigating 42 health conditions. These studies included 207 ML prediction models supplied by the PHC data of 24.2 million participants from 19 countries. We found that 92.4% of the studies were retrospective and 77.3% of the studies reported diagnostic predictive ML models. A majority (76.4%) of all the studies were for models' development without conducting external validation. Risk of bias assessment revealed that 90.8% of the studies were of high or unclear risk of bias. The most frequently reported health conditions were diabetes mellitus (19.8%) and Alzheimer's disease (11.3%). Our study provides a summary on the presently available ML prediction models within PHC. We draw the attention of digital health policy makers, ML models developer, and health care professionals for more future interdisciplinary research collaboration in this regard.

A tree-based modeling approach for matched case-control studies.

Conditional logistic regression (CLR) is the indisputable standard method for the analysis of matched case-control studies. However, CLR is strongly restricted with respect to the inclusion of non-linear effects and interactions of confounding variables. A novel tree-based modeling method is proposed which accounts for this issue and provides a flexible framework allowing for a more complex confounding structure. The proposed machine learning model is fitted within the framework of CLR and, therefore, allows to account for the matched strata in the data. A simulation study demonstrates the efficacy of the method. Furthermore, for illustration the method is applied to a matched case-control study on cervical cancer.

Ammonia emissions from agriculture and their contribution to fine particulate matter: A review of implications for human health.

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) released from agriculture is contributing significantly to acidification and atmospheric NH3 may have on human health is much less readily available. The potential direct impact of NH3 on the health of the general public is under-represented in scientific literature, though there have been several studies which indicate that NH3 has a direct effect on the respiratory health of those who handle livestock. These health impacts can include a reduced lung function, irritation to the throat and eyes, and increased coughing and phlegm expulsion. More recent studies have indicated that agricultural NH3 may directly influence the early on-set of asthma in young children. In addition to the potential direct impact of ammonia, it is also a substantial contributor to the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) fraction (namely the US and Europe); where it accounts for the formation of 30% and 50% of all PM2.5 respectively. PM2.5 has the ability to penetrate deep into the lungs and cause long term illnesses such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and lung cancer. Hence, PM2.5 causes economic losses which equate to billions of dollars (US) to the global economy annually. Both premature deaths associated with the health impacts from PM2.5 and economic losses could be mitigated with a reduction in NH3 emissions resulting from agriculture. As agriculture contributes to more than 81% of all global NH3 emissions, it is imperative that food production does not come at a cost to the world's ability to breathe; where reductions in NH3 emissions can be easier to achieve than other associated pollutants.

Colposcopy non-attendance following an abnormal cervical cancer screening result: a prospective population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A considerable proportion of cervical cancer diagnoses in high-income countries are due to lack of timely follow-up of an abnormal screening result. We estimated colposcopy non-attendance, examined the potential factors associated and described non-attendance reasons in a population-based screening study. METHODS: Data from the MARZY prospective cohort study were analysed. Co-test screen-positive women (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse [ASC-US+] or high-risk human papillomavirus [hrHPV] positive) aged 30 to 65 years were referred to colposcopy within two screening rounds (3-year interval). Women were surveyed for sociodemographic, HPV-related and other data, and interviewed for non-attendance reasons. Logistic regression was used to examine potential associations with colposcopy attendance. RESULTS: At baseline, 2,627 women were screened (screen-positive = 8.7%), and 2,093 again at follow-up (screen-positive = 5.1%; median 2.7 years later). All screen-positives were referred to colposcopy, however 28.9% did not attend despite active recall. Among co-test positives (ASC-US+ and hrHPV) and only hrHPV positives, 19.6% were non-attendees. Half of only ASC-US+ screenees attended colposcopy. Middle age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.55, 95% CI 1.02, 4.96) and hrHPV positive result (aOR = 3.04, 95% CI 1.49, 7.22) were associated with attendance. Non-attendance was associated with having ≥ 3 children (aOR = 0.32, 95% CI 0.10, 0.86). Major reasons for non-attendance were lack of time, barriers such as travel time, need for childcare arrangements and the advice against colposcopy given by the gynaecologist who conducted screening. CONCLUSIONS: Follow-up rates of abnormal screening results needs improvement. A systematic recall system integrating enhanced communication and addressing follow-up barriers may improve screening effectiveness.

Association between Habitual Diet and the Postprandial Glucose Response-An Enable Study.

SCOPE: It is inconclusive which factors influence inter-individual variations of postprandial glucose response (PPGR). This study investigates whether the habitual diet is associated with PPGR. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from healthy adults (young adults with 18-25 years, middle-aged adults with 40-65 years, and older adults with 75-85 years) is collected at baseline and during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) collected. Habitual diet is assessed by a food frequency questionnaire and two 24-h food lists. Associations between habitual diet and glucose incremental area under the curve (iAUCmin ) are examined by regression models. The intake of cereals and cereal products is negatively associated with glucose iAUCmin (p = 0.002) in the total cohort (N = 459, 50% women, 55 ± 21 years, BMI 26 ± 5 kg m- 2 ). Up to 9% of the variance in the glycemic response is explained by the respective dietary parameters identified in the models of the specific age groups. CONCLUSION: There are age-specific diet-related effects on PPGR. The usual intake of cereals and cereal products seems to play a greater role in PPGR in more than one age group. Further research is needed, to establish how diet can be optimized based on age and PPGR.

Breast Cancer Among Female Flight Attendants and the Role of the Occupational Exposures: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate occupational exposures and their role in breast cancer (BC) risk among female flight attendants (FFAs). METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE and included all observational studies reporting on the outcome BC incidence among FFAs. The exposures of interest were cosmic radiation and circadian rhythm disruption. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RESULTS: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria, of which four were included in the meta-analysis for BC incidence (pooled standardized incidence ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.32 to 1.54). Three studies suggested a possible association between BC and cosmic radiation, whereas none found an association with circadian rhythm disruption. CONCLUSION: Neither exposure to cosmic radiation nor circadian rhythm disruption seems to explain the elevated risk of BC among flight attendants. Further studies reporting individual information on occupational exposures are needed.

Tracking Devices for Pets: Health Risk Assessment for Exposure to Radiofrequency Electromagnetic Fields.

Every year, approximately 3% of cats and dogs are lost. In addition to passive methods for identifying pets, radiofrequency tracking devices (TDs) are available. These TDs can track a pet's geographic position, which is transmitted by radio frequencies. The health risk to the animals from continuous exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs) was reviewed. Fourteen out of twenty-one commercially available TDs use 2G, 3G, or 4G mobile networks, and the others work with public frequencies, WLAN, Bluetooth, etc. The exposure of pets to RF-EMFs was assessed, including ambient exposure (radios, TVs, and base stations of mobile networks), exposure from indoor devices (DECT, WLAN, Bluetooth, etc.), and the exposure from TDs. The exposure levels of the three areas were found to be distinctly below the International Commission on Non-Ionising Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) reference levels, which assure far-reaching protection from adverse health effects. The highest uncertainty regarding the exposure of pets was related to that caused by indoor RF-emitting devices using WLAN and DECT. This exposure can be limited considerably through a reduction in the exposure time and an increase in the distance between the animal and the RF-emitting device. Even though the total RF-EMF exposure level experienced by pets was found to be below the reference limits, recommendations were derived to reduce potential risks from exposure to TDs and indoor devices.

Impact of opportunistic screening on squamous cell and adenocarcinoma of the cervix in Germany: A population-based case-control study.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the uptake of opportunistic cervical cancer screening (CCS) and other risk factors and their association with cervical cancer in Germany in a case-control study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We recruited incident cases of cervical cancer (ICD-10 C53) diagnosed between 2012 and 2016 and matched with three population-based controls, based on age and region of residence. Cases and controls reported their CCS participation during the past ten years (frequent: every three years; no or infrequent: less than every three years) and other relevant variables. We fitted conditional logistic regression models, reporting odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We report overall and stratified analyses by histologic group (squamous cell-SCC, and adenocarcinoma-AC), T category (T1 and T2+), and age (<50 and ≥50 years). We analysed 217 cases and 652 matched controls. 53.0% of cases and 85.7% of controls attended CCS frequently. In the overall adjusted model, no or infrequent participation in CCS (OR 5.63; 95% CI 3.51 to 9.04), having had more than one sexual partner (OR 2.86; 95%CI 1.50 to 5.45) and obesity (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.01 to 2.83) were associated with cervical cancer. Twelve years of schooling (OR 0.37; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.60) and a net monthly income of €3000 or more (OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.30 to 0.82) were protective factors. In the stratified analyses, no or infrequent participation was associated with T1 (OR 4.37; 95% CI 2.48 to 7.71), T2+ (OR 10.67; 95% CI 3.83 to 29.74), SCC (OR 6.88; 95% CI 4.08 to 11.59) and AC (OR 3.95; 95% CI 1.47 to 10.63). CONCLUSION: Although women who frequently attended CCS were less likely to develop cervical cancer, especially larger tumours, the high proportion of cases who had been frequently screened prior to diagnosis underscores the need to investigate the quality of cytology and treatment of precancerous lesions in Germany.

Effect of legroom proportions and individual factors for sitting with crossed legs: implications on the interior design of automated driving vehicles.

Sitting with crossed legs is a commonly adopted sitting posture in everyday situations. Yet, little is known about suitable design criteria to facilitate such a position inside a vehicle. This study is aimed at determining how much space is necessary for crossing the legs while considering legroom restrictions, anthropometric measures, and individual flexibility. More specifically, 3 D-kinematics of an ankle-on-knee leg-crossing task and the easiness to move ratings of 30 participants were assessed with restrictions of the legroom (2 heights × 3 distances) as well as without restrictions. Functional regression models revealed adaptations to a legroom restriction in the execution of movement, which occurred mainly in the knee joint and increased with more restricted legroom proportions. Therefore, the present study suggests a distance of 120% of the buttock-knee length between the dashboard and the occupant, as it requires only moderate adaptations and does not affect the perceived easiness of move. Practitioner Summary: This research investigated how much space is needed to cross the legs while sitting in a vehicle, finding that the movement execution is affected by legroom proportions, as well as individual anthropometry and flexibility. The study further presents the use of predicted motion traces to determine spatial requirements of movements. Abbreviations: BKL: buttock-knee length; H-point: hip point.

Exogenous creatinine clearence indexed to body surface area allows estimation of GFR and across species comparison.

The assessment of renal function in birds is difficult because sensitive biomarkers are lacking. Previous studies have demonstrated the feasibility of measuring the exogenous creatinine clearance in pigeons, indicating the potential use of this technique for the assessment of renal function in birds. The aim of the study was to index the exogenous creatinine elimination rate by body surface area, enabling comparison between different species. Exploratory data on common buzzards (Buteo buteo), Eurasian eagle-owls (Bubo bubo), domestic goose (Anser anser domesticus) and racing pigeons (Columba livia) were collected and indexed by body surface area. A sterile creatinine solution was administered at a dose DM = 50 mg kg-1 i.m. into the deep pectoral muscle of 52 clinically healthy birds of the four species with different body masses. The time course of the plasma creatinine concentration was measured and analyzed by a parametric pharmacokinetic Bateman model, followed by indexing the exogenous creatinine clearance (ECC) by body surface area. The exploratory ECC values for birds with a mean body mass ranging from 0.42 kg (pigeon) to 8.2 kg (goose) were between 0.4261 mL min-1 dm-2 (CI 0.3882-0.4672) and 0.8717 mL min-1 dm-2 (CI 0.8091-0.9362). ECC indexed by body surface area turned out to be independent from body mass. Resulting exploratory data covering species with different body masses are comparable with published data from very complex studies of avian renal function.

Patient-related and anesthesia-dependent determinants for postoperative delirium after oral and maxillofacial surgery. Results from a register-based case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for postoperative delirium (POD) after general oral and maxillofacial surgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 2420 patients were screened postoperatively for POD using the Nursing Delirium Screening Scale (NuDESC) before discharge from the post anesthesia caring unit (PACU). Basic health data and risk factors were collected. For analysis the study group (n=41) was compared to a control group of 164 randomly selected patients (case-control-ratio=1:4). To identify risk factors for POD multivariable logistic regression models were used. To see whether estimations remain stable, regression analysis was repeated for the subgroup of patients not undergoing dentoalveolar surgery (n=105). To estimate the risk for dentoalveolar surgery a logistic regression model was performed. RESULTS: Dementia was the only significant risk factor for POD (Odds ratio 41.5; 95% CI 5.48-314), also for patients undergoing other than dentoalveolar surgery (58.1; 1.70-1983). Patients undergoing dentoalveolar surgery were more often suffering from dementia (35.5; 2.85-441), other psychiatric and neurological disorders (3.15; 1.05-9.43), were of younger age (0.97; 0.94-1.00) and had higher anesthesiological risk (3.95; 1.04-14.9). CONCLUSION: Patients with dementia are at higher risk to develop POD after oral and maxillofacial surgery. We found a strong interdependence between age, dementia, ASA-Score and dentoalveolar surgery.

Knowledge, opinions and expectations of adults concerning personalised genotype-based dietary recommendations: a German survey.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the knowledge, opinions and expectations of persons with and without obesity concerning personalised genotype-based nutrition. DESIGN: Questions about nutrition, weight management and personalised genotype-based dietary recommendations were asked via standardised telephone-based interviews. Sociodemographic and anthropometric data were collected. The data were statistically weighted by age, gender, education, domicile and BMI. SETTING: Germany. PARTICIPANTS: Representative sample of the German population (n 1003) randomly sampled via a scientific Random Digit dial method plus 354 adults with a BMI ≥ 30·0 kg/m2 to enlarge the sample. RESULTS: Data of 1357 participants were analysed (51·1 % female, age: 50·5 ± 18·5 years, 15·9 % adults with a BMI ≥ 30·0 kg/m2). About 42 % or 19 % of the survey participants stated to know the terms personalised dietary recommendation or genotype-based dietary recommendation, respectively. Of those, 15·8 % indicated to have an experience with a personalised or genotype-based dietary recommendation. Almost 70 % of the survey participants believed that a genotype-based dietary recommendation is a reasonable measure for weight management. About 55 % of the survey participants pointed out that a genotype-based dietary recommendation is an effective concept in general. One-third of the survey participants (34·6 %) indicated to conceive the usage of a genotype-based dietary recommendation. CONCLUSION: Most of the survey participants did not know the term personalised or genotype-based dietary recommendation. One-third of the study participants are interested to use a genotype-based dietary recommendation. Therefore, more education of the public is necessary to properly help people making informed and serious decisions and assessing commercially available direct-to-consumer genetic tests.

Cervical Cancer Screening: Comparison of Conventional Pap Smear Test, Liquid-Based Cytology, and Human Papillomavirus Testing as Stand-alone or Cotesting Strategies.

BACKGROUND: Some countries have implemented stand-alone human papillomavirus (HPV) testing while others consider cotesting for cervical cancer screening. We compared both strategies within a population-based study. METHODS: The MARZY cohort study was conducted in Germany. Randomly selected women from population registries aged ≥30 years (n = 5,275) were invited to screening with Pap smear, liquid-based cytology (LBC, ThinPrep), and HPV testing (Hybrid Capture2, HC2). Screen-positive participants [ASC-US+ or high-risk HC2 (hrHC2)] and a random 5% sample of screen-negatives were referred to colposcopy. Post hoc HPV genotyping was conducted by GP5+/6+ PCR-EIA with reverse line blotting. Sensitivity, specificity (adjusted for verification bias), and potential harms, including number of colposcopies needed to detect 1 precancerous lesion (NNC), were calculated. RESULTS: In 2,627 screened women, cytological sensitivities (Pap, LBC: 47%) were lower than HC2 (95%) and PCR (79%) for CIN2+. Cotesting demonstrated higher sensitivities (HC2 cotesting: 99%; PCR cotesting: 84%), but at the cost of lower specificities (92%-95%) compared with HPV stand-alone (HC2: 95%; PCR: 94%) and cytology (97% or 99%). Cotesting versus HPV stand-alone showed equivalent relative sensitivity [HC2: 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00-1.21; PCR: 1.07, 95% CI, 1.00-1.27]. Relative specificity of Pap cotesting with either HPV test was inferior to stand-alone HPV. LBC cotesting demonstrated equivalent specificity (both tests: 0.99, 95% CI, 0.99-1.00). NNC was highest for Pap cotesting. CONCLUSIONS: Cotesting offers no benefit in detection over stand-alone HPV testing, resulting in more false positive results and colposcopy referrals. IMPACT: HPV stand-alone screening offers a better balance of benefits and harms than cotesting.See related commentary by Wentzensen and Clarke, p. 432.

Uncertainty in Latent Trait Models.

A model that extends the Rasch model and the Partial Credit Model to account for subject-specific uncertainty when responding to items is proposed. It is demonstrated that ignoring the subject-specific uncertainty may yield biased estimates of model parameters. In the extended version of the model, uncertainty and the underlying trait are linked to explanatory variables. The parameterization allows to identify subgroups that differ in uncertainty and the underlying trait. The modeling approach is illustrated using data on the confidence of citizens in public institutions.

Odour impact assessment by considering short-term ambient concentrations: A multi-model and two-site comparison.

Short-term events are one of the specific aspects that differentiate odour nuisance problems from conventional air quality pollutants. Atmospheric dispersion modelling has been considered the gold standard to realise odour impact assessments and to calculate separation distances. Most of these models provide predictions of concentrations of a pollutant in ambient air on an hourly basis. Even when the hourly mean odour concentration is lower than the perception threshold, concentration peaks above the threshold may occur during this period. The constant peak-to-mean factor is nowadays the most widespread method for evaluating short-term concentrations from the long-term ones. Different approaches have been proposed in the scientific literature to consider non-constant peak-to-mean factors. Two prominent approaches to do so are the i) variable peak-to-mean factor which considers the distance from the source and atmospheric stability and the ii) concentration-variance transport. In this sense, the aim of this work is to compare the results of three different freely available dispersion models (namely, CALPUFF, LAPMOD and GRAL), which implement three distinct ways to evaluate the short-term concentration values. Two sites, one in Austria and the other in Italy, were selected for the investigation. Dispersion model results were compared and discussed both in terms of long-term (hourly) concentrations and short-term. An important outcome of this work is that the dispersion models provided more equivalent results for hourly mean concentrations, in particular in the far-field. On the contrary, the method to evaluate short-term concentrations can deliver disparate results, thereby revealing a potential risk of poor assessment conclusions. The utilistion of a multiangle methodological approach (dispersion models, study site locations, algorithms to incorporate short-term concentrations) allowed providing useful information for future studies and policymaking in this field. Accordingly, our findings call for awareness on how the use of a particular dispersion model and its sub-hourly peak calculation method can affect odour impact assessment conclusions and compliance demonstrations.

Responsibility of Individuals and Stakeholders for Obesity and a Healthy Diet: Results From a German Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Overweight and obesity are thought to be mainly caused by an energy-rich diet and a sedentary lifestyle. The opinions of those with and without obesity about an individual´s and stakeholder´s responsibility for overweight and obesity as well as a healthy diet is rather unclear. Therefore, a survey was conducted to assess the thoughts of persons with and without obesity about the responsibilities for a high body weight and healthy diet. METHODS: This telephone-based survey was conducted in Germany. Landline and mobile phone users older than 17 years were quota sampled to represent the German population (n=1,003). Additionally, 354 adults with a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2 were included in the survey population. Questions on weight management, eating and drinking and anthropometry were asked. Furthermore, the opinions of participants on the responsibility of individuals and stakeholders for obesity and a healthy diet were collected. Data was statistically weighted by age, gender, education, domicile, and BMI. RESULTS: Data of 1,357 persons (51.1% female, age: 50.5 ± 18.5 years, 15.9% with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) were analyzed. Participants responded that the general causes of a high body weight were low physical activity (82.7%) and excessive caloric intake (80.5%) followed by a lack of will power (72.1%). Almost 90% of the survey population reported that each individual is responsible for his/her own healthy diet. More than 85% of the survey population agreed that a healthy diet in kindergarten and nutrition education at schools should be the preferred approaches when politics take care of a person´s healthy diet. Sub-analyses revealed that BMI, sex, age, and education are potential confounders. CONCLUSION: This German survey showed that the majority of participants indicated that the responsibility for a healthy diet lies with the individual and high body weight is caused by self-controlled attitudes. These results suggest that the survey population underestimates societal and environmental factors that contribute to the development of obesity, which could lead to attitudes that facilitate weight-related stigmatization. Furthermore, survey participants indicated that they would support policy-driven measures that promote a healthy diet.

Determination of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide emissions from a commercial dairy farm with an exercise yard and the health-related impact for residents.

Airborne emissions from concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) have the potential to pose a risk to human health and the environment. Here, we present an assessment of the emission, dispersion, and health-related impact of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide emitted from a 300-head, full-scale dairy farm with an exercise yard in Beijing, China. By monitoring the referred gas emissions with a dynamic flux chamber for seven consecutive days, we examined their emission rates. An annual hourly emission time series was constructed on the basis of the measured emission rates and a release modification model. The health risk of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide emissions around the dairy farm was then determined using atmospheric dispersion modeling and exposure risk assessment. The body mass-related mean emission factors of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide were 2.13 kg a-1 AU-1 and 24.9 g a-1 AU-1, respectively (one animal unit (AU) is equivalent to 500 kg body mass). A log-normal distribution fitted well to ammonia emission rates. Contour lines of predicted hourly mean concentrations of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide were mainly driven by the meteorological conditions. The concentrations of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide at the fence line were below 10 µg m-3 and 0.04 µg m-3, respectively, and were 2-3 orders of magnitude lower than the current Chinese air quality standards for such pollutants. Moreover, the cumulative non-carcinogenic risks (HI) of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide were 4 orders of magnitudes lower than the acceptable risk levels (HI = 1). Considering a health risk criterion of 1E-4, the maximum distance from the farm fence line to meet this criterion was nearly 1000 m towards north-northeast. The encompassed area of the contour lines of the ambient concentration of ammonia is much larger than that of hydrogen sulfide. However, the contour lines of the ammonia health risk are analogous to those of hydrogen sulfide. In general, the ammonia and hydrogen sulfide emissions from the dairy farm are unlikely to cause any health risks for the population living in the neighborhood.